张波, 李建林, 王燕.矿井涌水量重标极差法等维预测模型[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2021,40(2):22-26.

ZHANG B, LI J L, WANG Y.Equal dimension prediction model of mine water inflow based onrescaled range analysis method[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2021,40(2):22-26.

矿井涌水量重标极差法等维预测模型

张波1, 李建林2, 王燕3

1.中国平煤神马集团 炼焦煤资源开发及综合利用国家重点实验室，河南 平顶山467099;2河南理工大学 资源环境学院，河南 焦作  454000;2.河南理工大学 物理与电子信息学院，河南 焦作 454000

摘要:目前，矿井涌水量预测方法较多，但预测效果并不十分理想。为了提高预测的精度和速度，鉴于重标极差法对复杂系统演变分析和预测具有的独特优势，建立基于MATLAB的重标极差法涌水量等维预测模型，采用试算法确定涌水量时间序列的后续最佳取值。利用平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司八矿的涌水量资料对模型进行验证，结果表明：该矿涌水量时间序列的 Hurst指数H =0.968，涌水量序列均具有很强的持续性；平均循环周期为17个月；建立的模型预测精度达到了 98.43%，说明此模型对该矿涌水量的预测十分有效。利用MATLAB软件编写的重标极差法预测涌水量的程序，避开了繁琐的计算，提高了预测速度和精度。

关键词:重标极差法;MATLAB;平均循环周期;矿井涌水量预测;试算法

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2019090095

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（41672240 ，41573095 ）；河南省自然科学基金资助项目（182300410155 ）；河南省高等学校重 点科研计划项目（16A170010）

收稿日期:2019/09/24

修回日期:2019/10/25

出版日期:2021/03/15

Equal dimension prediction model of mine water inflow based onrescaled range analysis method

ZHANG Bo1, LI Jianlin2, WANG Yan3

1.State Key Laboratory of Coking Coal Exploitation and Comprehensive Utilization， China Pingmei Shenma Group， Pingdingshan  467099 ， Henan， China;2.Institute of Resources & Environment， Henan Polytechnic University ，Jiaozuo  454000 ， Henan， China;3.School of Physics & Electronic Information Engineering， Henan Polytechnic University ，Jiaozuo  454000 ， Henan， China

Abstract:At present， there are many methods for predicting mine water inflow， but the prediction effect is not satisfactory. In order to improve the precision and speed of prediction， in view of the advantages of rescaled range analysis method for the analysis and prediction of complex system evolution， an equal dimension prediction model of mine water inflow based on rescaled range analysis method with MATLAB was established. The trial algorithm was used to determine the subsequent optimal value of the water inflow time series. The model was verified by using the water inflow data of No. 8 Mine of Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co. ， Ltd. The resnlts showed that ： Hurst index of the mine water inflow time series was equal to 0. 968 ， that was， the water inflow sequence had strong persistence； The average cycle time of the mine water inflow time series was 17 months ；The prediction accuracy of the model reached 98.43% ， indicating that the model was very effective for predicting the water inflow of the mine. The program of predicting water inflow written by MATLAB software based on rescaled range analysis method avoided the cumbersome calculation and improved the prediction speed and precision.

Key words:rescaled range analysis method;MATLAB;average cycle;mine water inflow prediction;trial algorithm

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