陈俊杰, 刘胜威, 闫伟涛.水平煤层开采地表下沉速度偏态预测模型的构建[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2023,42(1):71-75.

CHEN J J, LIU S W, YAN W T.Construction of skew prediction model for surface subsidence velocity in horizontal coal seam mining[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2023,42(1):71-75.

水平煤层开采地表下沉速度偏态预测模型的构建

陈俊杰1, 刘胜威1, 闫伟涛1,2

1.河南理工大学 测绘与国土信息工程学院，河南 焦作 454000；2.河南理工大学 煤炭安全生产与清洁高效利用省部共建协同创新中心，河南 焦作 454000

摘要:为精准预测煤层采出后地表动态损伤程度，选取下沉速度作为动态指标，基于现场实测数据分析下沉速度曲线偏向于采空区一侧的偏态分布特征，采用平方根转换正态函数方法，构建下沉速度偏态预测模型，并通过实例对模型动态预测精度进行验证与分析。结果表明：该下沉速度偏态预测模型的预测结果与实测数据一致性较强，预测值与实测值拟合度均在0.95以上，相对中误差小于9%。研究结果可为矿山采动损害与防护提供理论和技术支持。

关键词:偏态预测模型;下沉速度;水平煤层开采;充分采动

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2020120105

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51974105，51774111）；河南省科技攻关项目（212102310012）；河南省高校重点科研项目（20A440005）； 河南理工大学青年骨干教师资助计划项目（2019XQG-07，B2017-07）

收稿日期:2020/12/30

修回日期:2021/03/04

出版日期:2023/01/25

Construction of skew prediction model for surface subsidence velocity in horizontal coal seam mining

CHEN Junjie1, LIU Shengwei1, YAN Weitao1,2

1.School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering，Henan Polytechnic University，Jiaozuo 454000，Henan，China；2.State Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean-efficiency Utilization，Henan Polytechnic University，Jiaozuo 454000，Henan，China

Abstract:To predict the dynamic damage degree of the surface accurately，based on the measured data the dynamic index of subsidence velocity was selected，the skew distribution characteristics of the subsidence velocity curve leaning to the side of the goaf were analyzed，and the skewness subsidence prediction model was established by square root transformation normal function.Then，its dynamic prediction accuracy was verified and analyzed by examples.The results showed that the predicted results obtained by using the prediction model were in good agreement with the measured data，the fitting degree between the predicted value and the measured value was above 0.95，and the relative median error was less than 9%.The study could provide theoretical and technical support for mine mining damage and protection.

Key words:skewness prediction model;subsidence velocity;horizontal coal seam mining;fully mining

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