郑春霞, 郑雅文.基于引力模型的世界遗产地入境客源市场影响因素与对策研究[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2023,42(6):96-102.

ZHENG C X, ZHENG Y W.Research on influencing factors and countermeasures of inbound tourist market of world heritage sites based on the Gravity Model[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2023,42(6):96-102.

基于引力模型的世界遗产地入境客源市场影响因素与对策研究

郑春霞1,2, 郑雅文3

1.闽南师范大学 商学院，福建 漳州  363000;2.闽南师范大学 商务大数据分析与应用福建省高校重点实验室，福建 漳州  363000;3.吉林建筑大学 建筑与规划学院，吉林 长春  130000

摘要:为分析世界遗产地入境客源市场影响因素，以拥有世界遗产福建土楼的漳州为例，在修正后的引力模型基础上，引入旅游目的地GDP、客源国（地区）GDP、客源国（地区）总人口、货币汇率、两地间距离、两地间进出口贸易总额、两地间往返机票价格、两地间是否免签证和文化认同感9个变量，验证入境客源市场引力模型的可行性。结果表明：客源国（地区）GDP和总人口与入境游客量正相关；两地间距离与入境客流量负相关；两地间进出口贸易总额和是否免签证与入境客流量正相关。研究结果可为一、二级市场和机会市场的划分提供指导。

关键词:引力模型;世界遗产地;入境旅游;客源市场;影响因素

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2022040051

基金项目:国家社会科学基金资助项目（21XSH021）

收稿日期:2022/04/12

修回日期:2022/06/16

出版日期:2023/11/25

Research on influencing factors and countermeasures of inbound tourist market of world heritage sites based on the Gravity Model

ZHENG Chunxia1,2, ZHENG Yawen3

1.Institute of Commerce，Minnan Normal University，Zhangzhou  363000，Fujian，China;2.Key Laboratory of Business Big Data Analysis and Application in Fujian Provincial Universities，Minnan Normal University，Zhangzhou  363000，Fujian，China;3.School of Architecture and Planning，Jilin Jianzhu University，Changchun  130000，Jilin，China

Abstract:Abstract：In order to analyze the inbound tourist market of world heritage sites，Zhangzhou，which has the World Heritage Fujian Tulou，was taken as an example.Based on the modified Gravity Model，nine explanatory variables were introduced：GDP of tourist destination，GDP and total number of tourists in the source country，currency exchange rate，distance between the two places，total import and export trade，round-trip ticket price，visa exemption and cultural identity，to verify the feasibility of the market Gravity Model of inbound tourists.The research showed that five factors：the GDP of the source country，the total population of the source country，the distance between the two places，the total amount of import and export trade and the visa exemption had a certain influence on the number of inbound tourists.The conclusion was that there was a positive correlation between the GDP and total population of the source country and the inbound tourists flow；the distance between the two places was negatively correlated with inbound tourists  flow；the total amout of import and export trade between the two places and the visa exemption were positively related to the inbound tourists flow.The research results can provide guidance for the division of primary，secondary and opportunity markets and opportunity markets， and put forward corresponding development suggestions.

Key words:Gravity Model;world heritage site;inbound tourism;source market;influence factor

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