彭磊,刘盼盼,李瑞丽,等. 气候变化-人类活动对黄河三角洲生态脆弱性相对作用的定量评价与区分[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版)，doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2026010021.

PENG L, LIU P P, LI R L, et al． Quantitative assessment and differentiation of the relative effects of climate change and human activities on ecological vulnerability in the Yellow River Delta [J]. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University( Natural Science) ，doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787. 2026010021.

气候变化-人类活动对黄河三角洲生态脆弱性相对作用的定量评价与区分(网络首发)

彭磊1，刘盼盼2，李瑞丽1，孙振霞1，焦燕1，郭兵2

1.广州南方测绘科技股份有限公司济南分公司, 山东 济南 250000；2.山东理工大学建筑工程与空间信息学院,山东 淄博 255000

摘要: 目的 气候变化与人类活动协同作用下，河口三角洲生态系统的脆弱性发生剧烈变化，二者的相对贡献如何，亟需明确。方法 本研究基于1985—2023年多源数据和敏感性-恢复力-压力度（sensitivity-restoration-pressure，SRP）模型，建立了黄河三角洲生态脆弱性评价体系，并融合模糊层次分析法（fuzzy analytic hierarchy process，FAHP）与变差系数法计算指标权重，引入净初级生产力（net primary productivity，NPP）辅助确定脆弱性阈值并定量区分气候变化与人类活动对生态脆弱性的相对作用。结果 结果表明：（1）构建的滨海三角洲生态脆弱性评价体系具有良好的区域适应性；（2）黄河三角洲整体上为中度脆弱，呈由西南内陆向沿海滩涂加剧的趋势；（3）1985—2023年，研究区生态脆弱性以轻度改善为主，改善区域主要分布于垦利东北部新生湿地和黄河故道两侧；（4）气候变化与人类活动共同作用下，人类活动为影响生态脆弱性变化的主导因子，其中正向改善与负向加剧贡献率超过40%的空间范围分别达 1 283km²和2 804km²。结论 研究结果可为黄河三角洲生态系统保护与修复提供理论依据。

关键词: 黄河三角洲；生态脆弱性；SRP模型；模糊层次分析法；时空演变

doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2026010021

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（42471329）；山东省高等学校“青创团队计划”团队项目（2022KJ224）;山东省自然科学基金项目（ZR2025MS398）

收稿日期：2026-01-13

修回日期：2026-03-31

网络首发日期：2026-05-09

Quantitative assessment and differentiation of the relative effects of climate change and human activities on ecological vulnerability in the Yellow River Delta (Online)

PENG Lei1, LIU Panpan2, LI Ruili1,SUN Zhenxia1,JIAO Yan1, GUO Bing2

1.Guangzhou South Surveying and Mapping Technology Co., Ltd.，Jinan Branch，Jinan 250000，Shandong，China; 2. School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, Shandong，China

Abstract: Objectives Under the combined influence of climate change and intensive human activities, the vulnerability of delta ecosystems exhibits significant spatiotemporal evolution, yet the relative contributions of these two drivers remain insufficiently quantified. Methods Taking the Yellow River Delta as the study area, this research constructed an ecological vulnerability assessment system based on the Sensitivity–Restoration–Pressure (SRP) model using multi-source data from 1985 to 2023. A dynamic weighting approach combining the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and the coefficient of variation method was applied to determine indicator weights. Net Primary Production (NPP) was introduced, and the CASA model (Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach) and the Miami model were used to estimate actual NPP and potential NPP, respectively, in order to quantitatively distinguish the relative effects of climate change and human activities on ecological vulnerability. Results The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the constructed ecological vulnerability assessment system for the coastal delta shows strong regional applicability; (2) ecological vulnerability in the Yellow River Delta is dominated by moderate levels and displays a spatial pattern that intensifies from the inland southwest toward the coastal tidal flats; (3) from 1985 to 2023, regional ecological dynamics were characterized mainly by slight improvement, with improved areas concentrated in the newly formed wetlands of northeastern Kenli and along both sides of the former Yellow River channel; and (4) under the combined effects of climate change and human activities, human activities were the dominant driver of ecological vulnerability change, with areas where their contribution exceeded 40% reaching 1,283 km⟡ for improvement and 2,804 km⟡ for deterioration. Conclusions These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and restoration of delta ecosystems.

Key words: Yellow River Delta; ecological vulnerability; SRP Model; Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process; spatiotemporal evolution