CHEN G F, ZHANG X R, LI H G，et al．Flood risk assessment of tailings reservoirs based on bibliometrics and ISM［J］.Journal of Henan Polytechnic University( Natural Science) ，doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787. 2025030057

doi: doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2023050057

Received：2025-03-25

Revised：2025-05-19

Online：2025-06-05

Flood risk assessment of tailings reservoirs based on bibliometrics and ISM

Chen Guofang¹, Zhang Xinru¹, Li Haigang^1,2,3, Zheng Yu^2,3, Wang Liuyue¹

(1.School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 340010, Jiangxi, China；2. Jiangxi Academy of Emergency Management Science, Nanchang 330030, Jiangxi, China；3.Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Safety Production Risk Monitoring, Early Warning, and Prevention, Nanchang Jiangxi 330030, Jiangxi, China)

Abstract: [Objective] Floods are identified as a critical factor affecting the safety of tailings pond. The risk transmission pathways of floods in tailings pond are clarified to facilitate the identification of key risk factors and the optimization of prevention measures. Therefore, researching flood risk assessment model and establishing a scientific risk assessment system hold significant practical importance for the prevention of floods in tailings pond. [Methods] Bibliometric analysis and expert decision-making were used to select the important flood risk influencing factors in tailings pond. The hierarchical structure of indicators was determined using the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) method. Disaster evolution paths were analyzed and corresponding preventive measures were proposed through Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). [Results] (1) 24 flood risk factors were initially identified through bibliometric analysis. 10 key factors were ultimately determined by combining average weight values with expert experience. (2) Interrelationships between the 10 factors and flood risks were calculated through ISM. Direct, indirect, and fundamental influencing factors of tailings pond flood disasters were identified. (3) A fault tree for tailings pond flood disasters was constructed by integrating ISM with accident cases. 18 disaster-causing paths and 9 accident prevention paths were derived through Boolean algebraic operations. (4) It was revealed that insufficient drainage capacity, large peak flood flow, and shallow initial phreatic line are the most critical events affecting flood risks, through structural importance analysis. [Conclusion] With the application of the integrated methodology combining bibliometric analysis, ISM and FTA, the fusion of objective indicator screening and system modeling was achieved, and theoretical support was provided for transforming tailings pond flood prevention strategies from passive response to active prevention.

Key words: tailings reservoirs; flood risk; Bibliometric analysis; ISM; FTA

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