YE J W，LI H G，LIU P X，et al．Analysis of reasons for tailings dam break and research on prevention and control based on AISM-MICMAC model［J］.Journal of Henan Polytechnic University( Natural Science) ，doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787. 2025030058

doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2023050058

Received：2025-03-25

Revised：2025-05-28

Online：2025-06-12

Analysis of reasons for tailings dam break and research on prevention and control based on AISM-MICMAC model

Ye Jiawen¹，Li Haigang^2,3，Liu Peixun^2,3，Shi Pingping¹，Wang Yali⁴

(1. School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering，Jiangxi University of Science and Technology，Ganzhou 341000，Jiangxi，China；2. Jiangxi Academy of Emergency Management Science，Nanchang 330000，Jiangxi，China；3. Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Work Safety Risk Monitoring，Early Warning，Prevention and Control，Nanchang 330000，Jiangxi，China；4.BGRIMM Technology Group，Beijing 102628，China)

Abstract: Once the tailings dam break occurs, it will cause significant losses to the life and property safety, ecology and environment of downstream residents. In order to ensure the safety of tailings pond and surrounding areas, it is particularly important to carry out research on the prevention and control of tailings dam break. [Objective] In order to explore the relationship between the causes of tailings dam break, study the evolution path between different tailings dam break factors, study the influence relationship between driving and dependence factors, identify the factors with high driving force and high dependence, and put forward corresponding strategies for different causes. [Methods] Using AISM-MICMAC model, this paper systematically studied the hierarchical relationship and category distribution of influencing factors. [Results] According to the analysis of accident cases, 69 factors that may lead to tailings dam break were obtained. These factors can be further divided into 10 levels, which are divided into direct causes, intermediate causes and root causes. The factors at the bottom of the structure are the root causes, and the factors at the top of the structure are the direct causes; The driving force value and dependency value of the factors were calculated, and the driving force value dependency value relationship diagram was obtained. [Conclusion] This set of antagonistic directed topological hierarchical maps can accurately reveal the levels of various factors and their evolution relationships, as well as the mutual transmission of influence relationships among factors; The root cause is high driving force and low dependence, and the direct cause is low driving force and high dependence. The four quadrant diagram can effectively reflect the driving force and dependence of each factor, visualize the driving force and dependence of each factor, identify the key factors of tailings dam break, provide general prevention and control ideas according to the factors in different quadrants, and then put forward targeted prevention and control measures for tailings dam break.

Key words: causes of tailings dam break; dam break prevention; AISM-MICMAC model; factors causing dam break；hierarchical division

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