Abstract：In order to overcome the disadvantages such as low fitting degree with actual data,big deviation within prediction subsidence parameters and rapid convergence at the margin of subsidence prediction curve when adopting traditional subsidence prediction based on probability integral method,by theoretical analysis,modified formula of subsidence curve based on probability integral method was concluded,and it is put forward a new subsidence prediction formula( G&L subsidence prediction function) further. Based on the actual data from the 22407 panel of Halagou coal mine,and using the parameters fitting toolbox within Matlab software,the prediction parameters in terms of these three kinds of prediction formula were obtained,and a further contrasts analysis was carried out. The results indicate that G&L subsidence prediction function improves the fitting degree and parameters prediction accuracy as well as solves the problem of rapid convergence at the margin of subsidence prediction curve,which enables the prediction result conform to surveying data,thus G&L subsidence prediction function has relatively high theoretical and practical value.

Keyword：mining subsidence;probability integral method;modified subsidence prediction formula;prediction parameters;