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PENG L, YANG Y D, PENG W, et al.Study on ground gas pipeline leakage and diffusion model based onALOHA and multiple regression prediction[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2021,40(1):8-14.

基于ALOHA和多元回归预测的地面天然气管道泄漏扩散模型研究

彭琳1, 杨应迪1, 彭伟1, 袁宏永2, 付明2, 武慧君3

1.安徽理工大学 能源与安全学院，安徽 淮南  232001;2.清华大学 合肥公共安全研究院 安徽 合肥  320601;3.安徽理工大学 地球与环 境学院，安徽 淮南 232001

摘要:为提高地面天然气管道泄漏扩散范围预测的精度，基于事故后果模拟分析和多元回归预测方法建立地面天然气泄漏扩散范围预测模型，以北京市某地面天然气管道泄漏事故为研究对象，结果表明：通过事故后果模拟分析得出，风速、大气稳定度、管道压力和泄漏口直径为扩散范围的关键影响因素，即为预测模型的自变量因素；通过多元回归预测和MATLAB软件建立的地面天然气管道泄漏扩散范围预测模型，其最大误差为5.48%。本文所建预测模型对天然气泄漏扩散范围的预测有一定的实际应用价值，可为地面天然气管道泄漏事故应急救援工作提供指导。

关键词:地面天然气管道;泄漏;扩散模型;ALOHA软件;多元回归预测

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2019070151

基金项目:安徽省杰出青年科学基金资助项目（1608085J09）

收稿日期:2019/07/27

修回日期:2019/11/29

出版日期:2021/01/15

Study on ground gas pipeline leakage and diffusion model based on ALOHA and multiple regression prediction

PENG Lin1, YANG Yingdi1, PENG Wei1, YUAN Hongyong2, FU Ming2, WU Huijun3

1.School of Energy and Safety,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan  232001 ,Anhui,China;2.Hefei Institute for Public Safety Research ，Tsinghua University,Hefei  320601 ,Anhui,China;3.School of Earth and Environment,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan  232001 ,Anhui,China

Abstract:In order to improve the accuracy of prediction of leakage and diffusion range of ground natural gas pipelines,a prediction model of ground gas leakage diffusion range was established based on accident consequence simulation analysis and multiple regression prediction methods. Taking the leakage accident of a ground natural gas pipeline in Beijing as the research object,the results showed that the key influencing factors of the diffusion range were wind speed,atmospheric stability,pipeline pressure and leak diameter,which were the independent variables of the prediction model； the maximum error of the prediction model of leakage diffusion range of ground natural gas pipeline established by multiple regression prediction method and MATLAB software was 5. 48%. The establishment method of this kind of prediction model had certain practical significance for the prediction of the gas leakage diffusion range,and provided guidance for the emergency rescue works of the ground gas pipeline leakage accidents.

Key words:ground natural gas pipeline;leakage;diffusion model;ALOHA software;multiple regression prediction

 基于ALOHA和多元回归预测的地面天然气管道泄漏扩散模型研究_彭琳.pdf