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基于变权-云模型的煤矿安全生产评价研究

程磊1,2, 史浩镕1,2, 贺智勇3, 耿剑统4

1.河南理工大学 安全科学与工程学院，河南 焦作  454000;2.煤炭安全生产与清洁高效利用省部共建协同创新中心，河南 焦作  454000;3.河南省科学院，河南 郑州  450046;4.河南省应急管理科学技术研究院，河南 郑州  450003

摘要: 目的 为了合理有效评价煤矿安全生产状况，  方法 通过组合赋权法，结合变权综合法，提出变权-云模型评估方法。根据河南省煤矿安全专项整治三年行动评估表及现场调研，从人员、设备、环境、管理4个方面选取24个评价指标，建立煤矿安全生产评价指标体系。采用变异系数法对G1法中指标重要性的确定进行改进，结合COWA客观赋权法，对评价指标进行组合赋权。通过变权综合法对常权权重进行修正，结合云模型理论绘制出安全生产评价云图，通过云图表征该煤矿整体安全风险等级。  结果 结果表明：提出的变权-云模型评估方法评估结果与现场考察评估结果相符，验证了评价方法的准确性。选取的评价指标和划分的风险等级较为合理，变权综合法可以较好地实现动态权重计算。结合云模型理论提出的变权-云模型评估方法可以实现评价指标的定性和定量分析，绘制出的云图可以表征评价结果的模糊性和随机性，很好地评估煤矿安全生产状况，验证了评价指标选取的合理性和变权-云模型评估方法的准确性，并指出该煤矿当前安全生产工作不足之处。  结论 构建的评价指标体系和评价模型可以应用于煤矿安全生产评价，为煤矿进一步加强安全生产工作提供指导和参考。

关键词:改进G1法;COWA法;变权综合法;云模型;安全风险评价

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2023030027

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（U1904210）

收稿日期:2023/03/10

修回日期:2023/04/21

出版日期:2024/07/31

Research on coal mine safety production evaluation based on variable weight-cloud model

CHENG Lei1,2, SHI Haorong1,2, HE Zhiyong3, GENG Jiantong4

1.College of Safety Science and Engineering，Henan Polytechnic University，Jiaozuo  454000，Henan，China;2.Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization，Jiaozuo  454000，Henan，China;3.Henan Academy of Sciences，Zhengzhou  450046，Henan，China;4.Henan Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology，Zhengzhou  450003，Henan，China

Abstract: Objectives In order to evaluate the safety situation of coal mines reasonably and effectively，  Methods the evaluation method of the variable weight-cloud model was proposed by combining the weighting method and the variable weight synthesis method.According to the three-year action evaluation table of Henan coal mine safety special rectification and field investigation，24 evaluation indexes were selected from four aspects：personnel，equipment，environment，and management，and the evaluation index system of coal mine safety production was established.The coefficient of variation method was used to improve the determination of the importance of indicators in the G1 method，and the evaluation indicators were combined with the COWA objective weighting method.Through the variable weight synthesis method，the constant was modified，and the cloud map of safety production evaluation was drawn in combination with cloud model theory. Results The results showed that the evaluation results of the proposed evaluation method of variable weight-cloud model were consistent with the field investigation evaluation results，which verified the accuracy of the evaluation method.The selection of evaluation indicators and the classification of risk levels were reasonable，and the variable weight synthesis method could better realize the dynamic weight calculation.The evaluation method of variable weight-cloud model combined with the cloud model theory could realize the qualitative and quantitative analysis of evaluation indicators，and the drawn cloud map could represent the fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation results，which could well evaluate the safety production of coal mines.The rationality of the selection of evaluation indicators and the accuracy of the variable weight-cloud model evaluation method were verified，and the shortcomings of the current safety work in the coal mine were pointed out. Conclusions The constructed evaluation index system and evaluation model could be applied to coal mine safety production evaluation and provide guidance and reference for further strengthening coal mine safety production work.

Key words:improved G1 method;COWA method;variable weight synthesis method;cloud model;safety risk assessment