LI J L, WANG L Y, LI S Y,et al.Forecast of mine water inflow based on grey-multi-step Markov model[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2023,42(5):66-71.

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2021060039

Received:2021/06/09

Revised:2021/09/18

Published:2023/09/25

Forecast of mine water inflow based on grey-multi-step Markov model

LI Jianlin1,2, WANG Luyang1, LI Songying3, WANG Chong4, ZHANG Mengjiao1

1.Institute of Resources & Environment，Henan Polytechnic University，Jiaozuo  454000，Henan，China;2.Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization，Henan Polytechnic University，Jiaozuo  454000，Henan，China;3.Henan Energy and Chemical Industry Group Research Institute Co.，Ltd.，Zhengzhou  450018，Henan，China;4.The Nuclear Industry 247 Brigade of Tianjin North China Geological Exploration Bureau，Tianjin  301800，China

Abstract:To improve the prediction accuracy of mine water inflow，taking Longmen Mine in Luoyang as an example，a grey multi-step Markov model was proposed based on the normal water inflow sequence from January 2011 to December 2020.And the model was validated by using the measured water inflow from January to April 2021.The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the gray multi-step Markov model reached 99.35%，which was significantly higher than the prediction accuracy of a single gray model and gray-Markov model.The greymulti-step Markov model had a good fitting effect on non-stationary series with large fluctuations，reduced certain subjectivity and improved predict accuracy，which could provide an effective method for mine water inflow prediction.

Key words:mine water inflow;grey-multi-step Markov model;non-stationary series;residual correction

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