doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2019070151

Received:2019/07/27

Revised:2019/11/29

Published:2021/01/15

Study on ground gas pipeline leakage and diffusion model based on ALOHA and multiple regression prediction

PENG Lin1, YANG Yingdi1, PENG Wei1, YUAN Hongyong2, FU Ming2, WU Huijun3

1.School of Energy and Safety,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan  232001 ,Anhui,China;2.Hefei Institute for Public Safety Research ，Tsinghua University,Hefei  320601 ,Anhui,China;3.School of Earth and Environment,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan  232001 ,Anhui,China

Abstract:In order to improve the accuracy of prediction of leakage and diffusion range of ground natural gas pipelines,a prediction model of ground gas leakage diffusion range was established based on accident consequence simulation analysis and multiple regression prediction methods. Taking the leakage accident of a ground natural gas pipeline in Beijing as the research object,the results showed that the key influencing factors of the diffusion range were wind speed,atmospheric stability,pipeline pressure and leak diameter,which were the independent variables of the prediction model； the maximum error of the prediction model of leakage diffusion range of ground natural gas pipeline established by multiple regression prediction method and MATLAB software was 5. 48%. The establishment method of this kind of prediction model had certain practical significance for the prediction of the gas leakage diffusion range,and provided guidance for the emergency rescue works of the ground gas pipeline leakage accidents.

Key words:ground natural gas pipeline;leakage;diffusion model;ALOHA software;multiple regression prediction

 基于ALOHA和多元回归预测的地面天然气管道泄漏扩散模型研究_彭琳.pdf