叶佳文，李海港，刘珮勋，等. 基于AISM-MICMAC模型的尾矿库溃坝原因分析及防控研究[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版)，doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2025030058

YE J W，LI H G，LIU P X，et al．Analysis of reasons for tailings dam break and research on prevention and control based on AISM-MICMAC model［J］.Journal of Henan Polytechnic University( Natural Science)，doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787. 2025030058

基于AISM-MICMAC模型的尾矿库溃坝原因分析及防控研究(网络首发)

叶佳文¹，李海港^2,3，刘珮勋^2,3，石萍萍¹，王雅莉⁴

（1.江西理工大学 应急管理与安全工程学院，江西 赣州 341000；2.江西省应急管理科学研究院，江西 南昌 330000；3.安全生产风险监测预警与防控江西省重点实验室，江西 南昌 330000；4.矿冶科技集团有限公司，北京 102628）

摘要: 尾矿库溃坝一旦发生，对下游居民的生命财产安全、生态、环境将造成重大损失。为确保尾矿库以及周边的安全，对尾矿库溃坝的防控展开研究尤为重要。 [目的] 为探究造成尾矿库溃坝成因之间的关系，研究不同尾矿库溃坝因素之间的演化路径，研究因素之间驱动与依赖的影响关系，识别有较高驱动力和较高依赖度的因素，针对不同成因提出对应的策略。[方法] 采用AISM-MICMAC模型，系统研究了影响因素之间的层级关系及类别分布。[结果] 根据事故案例分析，得到可能导致尾矿库溃坝因素共69个，这些因素可进一步分为10个层级，10个层级分为直接原因、中间原因和根本原因，位于结构底层的因素为根本原因，位于结构顶层的因素为直接原因；计算因素的驱动力值和依赖度值，得到驱动力值-依赖度值关系图。[结论] 这组对抗有向拓扑层级图能够精准地揭示各因素所属层级及其演化关系，以及因素间影响关系的相互传递；根本原因表现为有较高的驱动力和较低的依赖度，直接原因表现为较低的驱动力和较高的依赖度，四象限图可以有效反应各因素的驱动力值和依赖度值，将各个因素的驱动力值和依赖度值可视化，甄别尾矿库溃坝的关键因素，根据不同象限的因素，提供大致防控思路，再提出有针对性的尾矿库溃坝防控措施。

关键词: 尾矿库溃坝原因；溃坝防控；AISM-MICMAC模型；溃坝因素；层级划分

中图分类号：X936

doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2025030058

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2023YFC3012200）

收稿日期：2025-03-25

修回日期：2025-05-28

网络首发日期：2025-06-12

Analysis of reasons for tailings dam break and research on prevention and control based on AISM-MICMAC model

Ye Jiawen¹，Li Haigang^2,3，Liu Peixun^2,3，Shi Pingping¹，Wang Yali⁴

(1. School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering，Jiangxi University of Science and Technology，Ganzhou 341000，Jiangxi，China；2. Jiangxi Academy of Emergency Management Science，Nanchang 330000，Jiangxi，China；3. Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Work Safety Risk Monitoring，Early Warning，Prevention and Control，Nanchang 330000，Jiangxi，China；4.BGRIMM Technology Group，Beijing 102628，China)

Abstract: Once the tailings dam break occurs, it will cause significant losses to the life and property safety, ecology and environment of downstream residents. In order to ensure the safety of tailings pond and surrounding areas, it is particularly important to carry out research on the prevention and control of tailings dam break. [Objective] In order to explore the relationship between the causes of tailings dam break, study the evolution path between different tailings dam break factors, study the influence relationship between driving and dependence factors, identify the factors with high driving force and high dependence, and put forward corresponding strategies for different causes. [Methods] Using AISM-MICMAC model, this paper systematically studied the hierarchical relationship and category distribution of influencing factors. [Results] According to the analysis of accident cases, 69 factors that may lead to tailings dam break were obtained. These factors can be further divided into 10 levels, which are divided into direct causes, intermediate causes and root causes. The factors at the bottom of the structure are the root causes, and the factors at the top of the structure are the direct causes; The driving force value and dependency value of the factors were calculated, and the driving force value dependency value relationship diagram was obtained. [Conclusion] This set of antagonistic directed topological hierarchical maps can accurately reveal the levels of various factors and their evolution relationships, as well as the mutual transmission of influence relationships among factors; The root cause is high driving force and low dependence, and the direct cause is low driving force and high dependence. The four quadrant diagram can effectively reflect the driving force and dependence of each factor, visualize the driving force and dependence of each factor, identify the key factors of tailings dam break, provide general prevention and control ideas according to the factors in different quadrants, and then put forward targeted prevention and control measures for tailings dam break.

Key words: causes of tailings dam break; dam break prevention; AISM-MICMAC model; factors causing dam break；hierarchical division

CLC: