PENG L, LIU P P, LI R L, et al． Quantitative assessment and differentiation of the relative effects of climate change and human activities on ecological vulnerability in the Yellow River Delta [J]. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University( Natural Science) ， doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787. 2026010021.

doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2026010021

Received： 2026-01-13

Revised： 2026-03-31

Online： 2026-05-09

Quantitative assessment and differentiation of the relative effects of climate change and human activities on ecological vulnerability in the Yellow River Delta (Online)

PENG Lei1, LIU Panpan2, LI Ruili1,SUN Zhenxia1,JIAO Yan1, GUO Bing2

1.Guangzhou South Surveying and Mapping Technology Co., Ltd.，Jinan Branch，Jinan 250000，Shandong，China; 2. School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, Shandong，China

Abstract: Objectives Under the combined influence of climate change and intensive human activities, the vulnerability of delta ecosystems exhibits significant spatiotemporal evolution, yet the relative contributions of these two drivers remain insufficiently quantified. Methods Taking the Yellow River Delta as the study area, this research constructed an ecological vulnerability assessment system based on the Sensitivity–Restoration–Pressure (SRP) model using multi-source data from 1985 to 2023. A dynamic weighting approach combining the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and the coefficient of variation method was applied to determine indicator weights. Net Primary Production (NPP) was introduced, and the CASA model (Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach) and the Miami model were used to estimate actual NPP and potential NPP, respectively, in order to quantitatively distinguish the relative effects of climate change and human activities on ecological vulnerability. Results The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the constructed ecological vulnerability assessment system for the coastal delta shows strong regional applicability; (2) ecological vulnerability in the Yellow River Delta is dominated by moderate levels and displays a spatial pattern that intensifies from the inland southwest toward the coastal tidal flats; (3) from 1985 to 2023, regional ecological dynamics were characterized mainly by slight improvement, with improved areas concentrated in the newly formed wetlands of northeastern Kenli and along both sides of the former Yellow River channel; and (4) under the combined effects of climate change and human activities, human activities were the dominant driver of ecological vulnerability change, with areas where their contribution exceeded 40% reaching 1,283 km⟡ for improvement and 2,804 km⟡ for deterioration.Conclusions These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and restoration of delta ecosystems.

Key words: Yellow River Delta; ecological vulnerability; SRP Model; Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process; spatiotemporal evolution