>> 自然科学版期刊 >> 2017年02期 >> 正文
基于最优加权组合模型的转炉炼钢耗氧量预测
供稿: 王红君;蒋伟杰;赵辉;岳有军 时间: 2018-11-21 次数:

作者:王红君蒋伟杰赵辉岳有军

作者单位:天津理工大学自动化学院(天津市复杂控制理论与应用重点实验室)天津农学院

摘要:针对转炉炼钢过程中氧气消耗量难以准确预测问题,提出了一种基于灰色系统和遗传算法优化的BP神经网络组合的转炉耗氧量预测模型。首先,对提取出的转炉冶炼历史数据,运用灰色关联度方法确定出转炉炼钢氧气消耗量序列的主导因数序列;再对筛选出的主导因数序列数据运用灰色系统模型和GA-BP神经网络模型分别进行预测,最后,根据模型的预测结果,以组合预测误差平方和最小为目标函数,计算出各个模型的最优权重系数并进行加权融合进而实现了对转炉氧气消耗量的预测。仿真结果表明,提出的组合预测模型在减小预测误差、提髙预测精度以及增强泛化能力等方面优势明显,更加适合于转炉炼钢耗氧量的预测。

基金:天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(2013ZCZDGX03800);

关键词:转炉氧气;灰色关联度分析;灰色系统;GA-BP神经网络;组合预测模型;

DOI:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2017.02.015

分类号:TF713;TP18

Abstract:The accurate predictability of converter steelmaking oxygen consumption is important for the optimization scheduling energy of iron and steel enterprises, therefore, it is put forward prediction model for converter oxygen consumption, and it is the BP neural network which based on grey system and genetic algorithm to optimiztion the combination.First of all, according to the extract of converter smelting history data, it uses grey correlation method to ensure the main factor sequence of converter steelmaking oxygen consumption.Secondly, the method that is used to predict the selected sample data sequence is grey correlation method and GABP neural network.Finally, it is concluded that the optimal weight coefficient of combination model.Based on the minimum of combination forecasting error square sum.The simulations reveal that this method is effective on the reducing the prediction error, increasing prediction accuracy, and enhancing the generalization ability.Therefore, compared with the other models, the combined forecast model is more suitable for prediction of converter steelmak oxygen consumption.

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