Abstract：Focusing on the problem of a Modongwang reservoir and its dam structure above the 31 district of Yanghe coal east wing on Zhengzhou coal group, the probability integral method parameters and angular parameters of surface movement and deformation were obtained by means of the probability integral method for the curve fitting of the measured data of the 31071 working face above the surface observation station.The law of surface movement and deformation affected by the influence of mining was analyzed by using the surface movement deformation curve.The result show that, by the restrictive production measures in the area of reservoir and dam, it appeared a certain level of damage and reached the levelⅠin the end of the testing working face, then after the exploitation of all the mining face in the region, the dam will achieve the maximum extent of the damage with the levelⅡ, which does not exceed allowable deformation value of coal mining rules under baildings, railways and water bodies.

Keyword：mining subsidence;surface movement and deformation;mining under reservoir;probability integral method;predicting parameters;