葛利玲, 焦轶恒, 张旭飞,等.基于气候变化和人为因素的黄土高原植被覆盖变化特征及归因[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,44(6):137-146.

GE L L, JIAO Y H, ZHANG X F,et al. Characteristics and attribution of vegetation change in the Loess Plateau based on climate change and human factors[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2025,44(6):137-146.

基于气候变化和人为因素的黄土高原植被覆盖变化特征及归因

葛利玲1, 焦轶恒2, 张旭飞2, 方士军1

1.河南省国土空间调查规划院，河南 郑州  450000；2.河南理工大学 测绘与国土信息工程学院，河南 焦作  454000

摘要: 目的 黄土高原是中国生态安全的重要组成部分，了解其植被的时空变化及其气候控制因子，可为生态环境保护与恢复提供重要的理论依据。  方法 基于中国黄土高原2000—2022年逐年核植被归一化差异指数（kNDVI）表征植被覆盖度，利用植被覆盖度变化趋势分析、稳定性分析和Hurst指数预测，探讨植被时空变化特征。此外，结合气象资料，利用偏导数分析方法进一步量化气候变化和人为因素对kNDVI年际变化的贡献。 结果 结果表明：（1）近23 a来，植被覆盖度以0.005 7/a速率增长，受坡度影响，植被覆盖度时空异质性显著。（2）矿区内大部分地区（79.04%）植被生长呈上升趋势，部分地区（3.74%）植被生长呈下降趋势。（3）降水和温度对黄土高原kNDVI变化的平均贡献分别为0.000 81/a，0.001 31/a，人为活动对植被活动影响占主导地位，对kNDVI变化的相对贡献率为62.33%（气候变化贡献率为37.67%）。（4）土地利用效率动态表现为林地面积增加和大规模生态造林工程增加，植被覆盖度增加，相反，城市化对植被覆盖变化产生不利影响。  结论 研究结果可为生态恢复和环境质量改善提供理论依据和技术支撑。

关键词:植被动态;气候变化;人为活动;归因分析;中国黄土高原

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024030039

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（U22A20620）

收稿日期:2024/03/13

修回日期:2024/05/20

出版日期:2025/10/14

Characteristics and attribution of vegetation change in the Loess Plateau based on climate change and human factors

Ge Liling1, Jiao Yiheng2, Zhang Xufei2, Fang Shijun1

1.Henan Provincial Territorial Spatial Survey and Planning Institute， Zhengzhou  450000， Henan， China；2.School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering， Henan Polytechnic University， Jiaozuo  454000， Henan， China

Abstract: Objectives The Loess Plateau is an important part of China’s ecological security. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and its climate controls provides a robust theoretical basis for ecological protection and restoration. Methods The kernel-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （kNDVI） was employed in this study to characterize vegetation cover across the Loess Plateau of China from 2000 to 2022. Spatialtemporal patterns were examined using trend analysis， stability analysis， and Hurst exponent-based prediction. In addition， meteorological observations were leveraged， and partial-derivative-based attribution was applied to quantify the respective contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities to interannual kNDVI changes. Results showed that： （1） Over the past 23 years， the vegetation cover increased at a rate of 0.0057/a， and slope-driven spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vegetation cover was significant； （2） The Hurst-based projections indicate that in the mining areas， the vegetation growth shows an upward trendency across 79.04% of the region， while 3.74% exhibits a downward tendency. （3） The results of attribution show that the average contributions of precipitation and temperature to kNDVI changes in the Loess Plateau were 0.000 81/a and 0.001 31/a， respectively. Anthropogenic activities dominated， accounting for a 62.33% relative contribution to kNDVI change， compared with 37.67% from climate variability. （4） Land-use dynamics featured expansion of forest area， scaled ecological afforestation projects and vegetation cover. On the contrary， urbanization exerted an adverse effect on vegetation growth.  Conclusions This study provides theoretical and technical support for ecological restoration and environmental quality improvement.

Key words: vegetation dynamics; climate change; anthropogenic activity; attribution analysis; Loess Plateau of China