Abstract：Probability integral method has been widely used in the prediction of coal mine surface subsidence in china. This prediction method has symmetrical distribution characteristics, and has the best accuracy in subsidence prediction of horizontal coal seam mining. After inclined coal seam mined out, the shape of surface subsidence basin tended to be skewed. When the probability integral method was used to predict, the prediction deviation was larger. To solve this problem, the paper established a body coordinate of coal face and surface rectangular coordinate system, using the stochastic medium theory to realize the superposition integral operation of unit mining subsidence influence in the frame of coordinate system of coal face, and established the mining subsidence prediction skewness model of inclined coal seam in the surface rectangular coordinate system. The analysis results showed that the surface subsidence caused by inclined coal seam mining is in line with the Weibull distribution law, and the validity of the prediction model is verified by an example. The study conclusions can provide theoretical and technical support for subsidence prediction of similar mining area.

Keyword：inclined coal seam;subsidence prediction in mining;Weibull skewness distribution;