doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2020090045

Received:2020/09/10

Revised:2021/03/02

Published:2022/01/10

Research on multi-criteria risk assessment of power grid components based on influence diagram and fuzzy probabilit

YANG Fei, HU Wanqiang, LI Yaohui

School of Electrical & Mechanical Engineering ，Xuchang University ，Xuchang 461000 ， Henan， China

Abstract: In the process of risk assessment of power grid components，there are some uncertainties of risk factors，and the evaluation criteria of each risk factor is also different，so the relationship between risk variables and the possible consequences cannot be effectively expressed.In order to solve these problems，a multi-criteria risk assessment method for power grid components based on influence diagram and fuzzy probability was proposed.The influence diagram was used to determine all relevant factors affecting risk，and to descrie their correlation and all possible alternative decisions.In order to calculate the occurrence probability，the fuzzy correspondence was extended to the standard arithmetic operator by using the extension principle.The method was applied to the verification of the low oil circuit breaker.Four nodes were selected as risk factors，including weather conditions，the surrounding environment and the maximum load of the power grid，the working state of the few oil circuit breaker.The influence diagram was formed according to the mutual influence relationships， and the risk assessment of the component operation state was carried out through different standards of safety and environmental risk.Finally，the risk values of three maintenance schemes( Do nothing，Minor，MMajor) were calculated，which provided effective basis for maintenance decision-making.The method could provide a useful reference for the effective evaluation of risk factors in the process of power grid component maintenance decision-making.

Key words:power grid component;multi-criteria risk assessment;influence diagram;fuzzy probability;maintenance decision-making

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