doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2019090095

Received:2019/09/24

Revised:2019/10/25

Published:2021/03/15

Equal dimension prediction model of mine water inflow based onrescaled range analysis method

ZHANG Bo1, LI Jianlin2, WANG Yan3

1.State Key Laboratory of Coking Coal Exploitation and Comprehensive Utilization， China Pingmei Shenma Group， Pingdingshan  467099 ， Henan， China;2.Institute of Resources & Environment， Henan Polytechnic University ，Jiaozuo  454000 ， Henan， China;3.School of Physics & Electronic Information Engineering， Henan Polytechnic University ，Jiaozuo  454000 ， Henan， China

Abstract:At present， there are many methods for predicting mine water inflow， but the prediction effect is not satisfactory. In order to improve the precision and speed of prediction， in view of the advantages of rescaled range analysis method for the analysis and prediction of complex system evolution， an equal dimension prediction model of mine water inflow based on rescaled range analysis method with MATLAB was established. The trial algorithm was used to determine the subsequent optimal value of the water inflow time series. The model was verified by using the water inflow data of No. 8 Mine of Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co. ， Ltd. The resnlts showed that ： Hurst index of the mine water inflow time series was equal to 0. 968 ， that was， the water inflow sequence had strong persistence； The average cycle time of the mine water inflow time series was 17 months ；The prediction accuracy of the model reached 98.43% ， indicating that the model was very effective for predicting the water inflow of the mine. The program of predicting water inflow written by MATLAB software based on rescaled range analysis method avoided the cumbersome calculation and improved the prediction speed and precision.

Key words:rescaled range analysis method;MATLAB;average cycle;mine water inflow prediction;trial algorithm

 矿井涌水量重标极差法等维预测模型_张波.pdf