李建林, 王树威, 王心义,等.矿井涌水对大气降水响应的非线性研究[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2020,39(6):36-42.

LI J L, WANG S W, WANG X Y, et al.Nonlinear study on the response of mine water inflow to atmospheric precipitation[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2020,39(6):36-42.

矿井涌水对大气降水响应的非线性研究

李建林1,2, 王树威1, 王心义1,2, 崔延华1

1.河南理工大学 资源环境学院，河南 焦作 454000；2.中原经济区煤层（页岩）气河南省协同创新中心，河南 焦作 454000

摘要:矿井涌水量是煤矿安全生产的一个重要基础性指标，深部矿井涌水量与地表水、地下水之间的定量关系一直是水文过程研究的一个难点问题。本文采用Mann-Kendall检验法、R/S 分析法、GM（1 ，2 ）模型和现场分析等方法，以平煤七矿为例，研究矿井涌水量对降水量变化的响应。结果表明：降水量序列Hurst指数为0.367 7，该序列具有反持续性，其平均循环周期为 5个月；涌水量序列Hurst指数为0. 897 3，该序列具有正持续性，其平均循环周期为20个月；降水量对矿井涌水量的影响滞后1.5 ~3个月。以此为基础建立矿井涌水量的GM（ 1，2）预测 模型，预测精度达到了94.25%。该模型对同类型矿井涌水量预测具有借鉴价值。

关键词:矿井涌水量;大气降水量;Mann-Kendall检验法;R/S分析法;GM  （  1  ，2  ）预测模型

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2020.6.6

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（41672240 ，41573095 ）；河南省自然科学基金资助项目（182300410155 ）；河南省高等学校重 点科研项目（16A170010）；河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划项目（15IRTSTHN027 ）

收稿日期:2020/02/20

修回日期:2020/04/26

出版日期:2020/11/15

Nonlinear study on the response of mine water inflow to atmospheric precipitation

LI Jianlin1,2, WANG Shuwei1, WANG Xinyi1,2, CUI Yanhua1

1.Institute of Resources & Environment， Henan Polytechnic University Jiaozuo  454000 ， Henan， China；2.Collaborative Innovation Center of Coalbed Methane and Shale Gas for Central Plains Economic Region， Henan Province， Jiaozuo  454000 ， Henan， China

Abstract:Mine water inflow is an important basic index of coal mine safety production. The quantitative research of the relationship between deep mine water inrush， surface water and groundwater has been a difficult problem in the study of hydrological process. The Mann-Kendall test， R/S analysis， GM （1 ，2 ） model and onsite analysis method were used to study the response of mine water inflow to the change of precipitation in Pingmei No.7 Mine. The results showed that ： （1） The Hurst index of precipitation series was 0. 367 7 ， which had an inverse persistence and its average cycle was 5 months； （2） The Hurst index of the water inflow series was 0. 897 3 ，which had a positive persistence and the average cycle period of mine water inflow series was 20 months. Precipitation impact on mine water inflow would be 1.5 ~3 months later. On this basis， a GM （1 ，2） prediction model of mine inflow was established， and the prediction accuracy reached 94. 25% . This model had reference value for the same type of mine to establish the water inflow prediction model.

Key words:mine water inflow;atmospheric precipitation;Mann-Kendall trend test;R/S analysis;GM （1,2） prediction model

矿井涌水对大气降水响应的非线性研究_李建林.pdf