汪冉, 张明鑫, 李浩.河南省交通通达水平对新型冠状病毒传播的影响[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2020,39(6):68-77.

WANG R, ZHANG M X, LI H.The influence of Henan，s traffic access level on SARS-CoV-2 transmission[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2020,39(6):68-77.

河南省交通通达水平对新型冠状病毒传播的影响

汪冉, 张明鑫, 李浩

宁夏大学 资源环境学院，宁夏 银川750021

摘要:为研究河南省交通通达水平和交通管制对新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）传播的影响，本文以新冠肺炎（COVID-19）作为流行病传播研究对象，分析交通管制前后累计病例的空间分布状况；采用公路密度、铁路密度、航空站点通航城市数量、离武汉距离等指标计算各县市区交通通达水平；采用地理加权回归分析方法探究交通通达水平对新型冠状病毒传播影响力大小的空间差异。结果表明：（1）新冠肺炎确诊病例呈现在河南南部集中、北部零星分布的特征，而交通通达水平在北部以郑州、洛阳为中心形成高值区片区，在南部南阳、信阳两市辖区形成孤立的较高值区。（2）交通管制进一步促进确诊病例从地市下辖各县向市辖区集中。（3 ）较高的交通通达水平对病毒传播具有加速作用，影响力高值区集中于郑州一南阳一信阳“L”型区 域，而商丘市在采取强有力的交通管制之后，传播影响力下降明显。（4）距离因素虽然对南阳、信阳辖区内的病毒传播有一定加剧作用，但是整体传播趋势仍然受交通通达水平影响。

关键词:河南省;交通通达水平;新型冠状病毒;交通管制;流行病传播

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2020.6.10

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（41461098 ）

收稿日期:2020/03/15

修回日期:2020/04/27

出版日期:2020/11/15

The influence of Henan，s traffic access level on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

WANG Ran, ZHANG Mingxin, LI Hao

College of Resource and Environmental Science， Ningxia University， Yinchuan 750021 ， Ningxia，China

Abstract:To study the influence of traffic access level and traffic control in on novel coronavirus （ SARS-COV-2 ） transmission Henan Province， taking COVID-19 as the research object of epidemic transmission， the spatial distribution of cumulative cases before and after traffic control was analyzed； the traffic access level of each county and city by using indicators such as highway， railway density， number of air-stop cities， and distance to Wuhan was calculated ； the spatial differences in the impact of traffic access levels on the spread of new coronaviruses were explored by means of geographically weighted regression analysis. The results showed that：（1） the confirmed cases were concentrated in the south and scattered in the north. However， in the north， Zhengzhou and Luoyang were the centers of high-value areas， while Nanyang and Xinyang in the South were formed isolated high-value areas；（2） traffic control had further strengthened the concentration of confirmed cases from the counties and towns under their jurisdiction to the municipal districts；（3） the higher traffic access level accelerated the spread of the virus， the high-impact areas were concentrated in the" L" type range of Zhengzhou City-Nanyang City-Xinyang City， however， after taking strong traffic control， Shangqiu City’s influence has dropped significantly；（4）although the distance factor aggravated the virus transmission in Nanyang and Xin- yang， the overall transmission trend was still affected by the traffic access level.

Key words:Henan Province;traffic access level;SARS-CoV-2;traffic control;epidemic transmission

河南省交通通达水平对新型冠状病毒传播的影响_汪冉.pdf