doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2020050031

Received:2020/05/11

Revised:2020/09/04

Published:2021/07/15

Optimization model of PCA-GA-Elman for development height prediction ofwater-conducting fissure zone

SHI Longqing1, WU Hongbin1, LI Yonglei2, LYU Weikui3

1.College of Earth Sciences and Engineering， Shandong University of Science and Technology， Qingdao  266590 ， Shandong， China;2.Jining Energy Development Group Co. ， Ltd. ，Jining  272000 ， Shandong， China;3.Shandong New Julong Energy Co. ，Ltd. ， Heze  274918 ， Shandong， China

Abstract:For the problem of difficult prediction of the development height of water-conducting fissure zone in mine flood prevention and control， by combining the actual coal production with engineering geology theory， and by combining the principal component analysis （ PCA ） with the genetic algorithm （ GA） and with the optimization of Elman neural network ， the mining depth s ， the hard rock lithology ratio coefficient b ， the mining height （ coal thickness） M， the face inclined length l， and the roof uniaxial resistance pressure strength were selected as the main influence factors to established the optimization model of PCA-GA-Elman for development height prediction of water-conducting fissure zone. Grey relation analysis （ GRA ） was used to analysis the correlation of main influence factors and the development height of water-conducting fissure zone. The results showed that the optimization model of PCA-GA-Elman could effectively eliminate the mutual influence between factors， and could optimize the initial weights and threshold so as to make the development height prediction of water-conducting fissure zone more accurate. Compared with the PCA-Elman and PCA-BP prediction models， the relative error of the water-conducting fissure zone development height predicted by the optimization model of PCA-GA-Elman was only 一6.34% 〜0.18%.

Key words:water-conducting fissure zone;development height;principal component analysis;genetic algorithm;Elman neural network;optimization model of PCA-GA-Elman

导水裂隙带发育高度预测的PCA_GA_Elman优化模型_施龙青.pdf