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LI J L, HU X W, ZHANG M J,et al.Risk assessment of underground coal mine reservoir utilization based on IAHP-EWM-SPA[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2025,44(6):83-91.

基于IAHP-EWM-SPA的煤矿地下水库利用风险评价

李建林1,2, 胡兴文3, 张孟佼4, 张钰锋1, 李晓磊5, 孟亚周6

1.河南理工大学 资源环境学院，河南 焦作  454000；2.煤炭安全生产与清洁高效利用省部共建协同创新中心，河南 焦作 454000；3.云南地质工程第二勘察院有限公司，云南 昆明  650218；4.河南省地质局地质灾害防治中心，河南 郑州  450000；5.河北省煤田地质局水文地质队，河北 邯郸  056000；6.永城煤电控股集团 登封煤业有限公司丰阳煤矿，河南 郑州  452470

摘要: 目的 煤矿采空区开发利用风险的准确评价是能否建设采空区地下水库的根本依据。以鹤壁中泰矿区3个煤矿采空区为例，对其开发利用过程中存在的风险进行评价。  方法 首先，引入P-S-R（Pressure-State-Response）模型，构建由“地质条件风险-安全条件风险-储水条件风险-经济效益风险”4个准则层，共17个指标组成的煤矿采空区地下水库利用风险评价体系；其次，采用直接测量、模拟计算和间接计算等方法对指标进行量化与分级；再次，利用改进层次分析法（IAHP）与熵权法（EWM）组合赋权优化指标权重；最后，利用集对分析法（SPA），对采空区的利用风险进行分级评价。  结果 结果显示：在4个准则层中，权重值最大的是地质条件风险；在17个指标中，影响煤矿采空区地下水库利用风险的关键指标依次为断层个数、煤层倾角、矿井涌水量、利润；33072采空区和2315采空区的利用风险等级为中风险，3201采空区的利用风险等级为高风险。 结论 IAHP-EWM-SPA模型为煤矿采空区地下水库开发利用风险评价提供了一种新方法。

关键词:煤矿采空区地下水库;风险评价指标体系;组合赋权;FLAC3D+Rhino+griddle数值模拟;IAHP-EWM-SPA评价模型

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024050007

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（U22A20566）

收稿日期:2024/05/09

修回日期:2024/12/31

出版日期:2025/10/14

Risk assessment of underground coal mine reservoir utilization based on IAHP-EWM-SPA

Li Jianlin1,2, Hu Xingwen3, Zhang Mengjiao4, Zhang Yufeng1, Li Xiaolei5, Meng Yazhou6

1.School of Resources and Environment， Henan Polytechnic University， Jiaozuo  454000， Henan， China；2.Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization， Jiaozuo  454000， Henan， China；3.Yunnan Geological Engineering Second Survey Institute Co. Ltd.， Kunming  650218， Yunnan， China；4.The Prevention and Control Center for the Geological Disaster of Henan Geological Bureau， Zhengzhou  450000， Henan， China；5.Hebei Coalfield Geological Bureau Hydrogeological Team， Handan  056000， Hebei， China；6.Fengyang coal mine of Dengfeng coal industry Co.， Ltd.， Yongcheng Coal Power Holding Group， Dengfeng  452470， Henan， China

Abstract: Objectives Accurate evaluation of the risks in developing and utilizing coal mine goafs is the fundamental basis for determining the feasibility of constructing underground reservoirs. Taking three goafs in the Hebi Zhongtai mining area as examples， this study evaluates the risks involved in their development and utilization. Methods The P-S-R （Pressure-State-Response） model was introduced to establish a risk evaluation system for underground coal mine reservoirs， consisting of four criteria layers—geological conditions， safety conditions， water storage conditions， and economic benefits—with a total of 17 indicators. The indicators were quantified and classified through direct measurement， simulation， and indirect calculation. The improved analytic hierarchy process （IAHP） and entropy weight method （EWM） were then combined to optimize indicator weights. Finally， set pair analysis （SPA） was applied to grade and evaluate the risks. Results The results show that among the four criterion layers， the largest weight value is the risk of geological conditions. Among the 17 indicators， the key indicators affecting the utilization risk of coal mine underground reservoir are the number of faults， coal seam inclination， mine water inflow， profit. The results show that the utilization risk level of 33072 goaf and 2315 goaf is moderate， while the utilization risk level of 3201 goaf is high. Conclusions The IAHP-EWM-SPA model offers a new approach for assessing the risks associated with the development and utilization of underground coal mine reservoirs.

Key words: underground coal mine reservoir; risk assessment index system; combined weighting; FLAC3D+Rhino+Griddle numerical simulation; IAHP-EWM-SPA model