LI J L, HU X W, ZHANG M J,et al.Risk assessment of underground coal mine reservoir utilization based on IAHP-EWM-SPA[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2025,44(6):83-91.

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024050007

Received: 2024/05/09

Revised: 2024/12/31

Published: 2025/10/14

Risk assessment of underground coal mine reservoir utilization based on IAHP-EWM-SPA

Li Jianlin1,2, Hu Xingwen3, Zhang Mengjiao4, Zhang Yufeng1, Li Xiaolei5, Meng Yazhou6

1.School of Resources and Environment， Henan Polytechnic University， Jiaozuo  454000， Henan， China；2.Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization， Jiaozuo  454000， Henan， China；3.Yunnan Geological Engineering Second Survey Institute Co. Ltd.， Kunming  650218， Yunnan， China；4.The Prevention and Control Center for the Geological Disaster of Henan Geological Bureau， Zhengzhou  450000， Henan， China；5.Hebei Coalfield Geological Bureau Hydrogeological Team， Handan  056000， Hebei， China；6.Fengyang coal mine of Dengfeng coal industry Co.， Ltd.， Yongcheng Coal Power Holding Group， Dengfeng  452470， Henan， China

Abstract: Objectives Accurate evaluation of the risks in developing and utilizing coal mine goafs is the fundamental basis for determining the feasibility of constructing underground reservoirs. Taking three goafs in the Hebi Zhongtai mining area as examples， this study evaluates the risks involved in their development and utilization. Methods The P-S-R （Pressure-State-Response） model was introduced to establish a risk evaluation system for underground coal mine reservoirs， consisting of four criteria layers—geological conditions， safety conditions， water storage conditions， and economic benefits—with a total of 17 indicators. The indicators were quantified and classified through direct measurement， simulation， and indirect calculation. The improved analytic hierarchy process （IAHP） and entropy weight method （EWM） were then combined to optimize indicator weights. Finally， set pair analysis （SPA） was applied to grade and evaluate the risks. Results The results show that among the four criterion layers， the largest weight value is the risk of geological conditions. Among the 17 indicators， the key indicators affecting the utilization risk of coal mine underground reservoir are the number of faults， coal seam inclination， mine water inflow， profit. The results show that the utilization risk level of 33072 goaf and 2315 goaf is moderate， while the utilization risk level of 3201 goaf is high. Conclusions The IAHP-EWM-SPA model offers a new approach for assessing the risks associated with the development and utilization of underground coal mine reservoirs.

Key words: underground coal mine reservoir; risk assessment index system; combined weighting; FLAC3D+Rhino+Griddle numerical simulation; IAHP-EWM-SPA model