作者：李晓飞；赵黎晨；吕可文

第一作者单位：河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心；河南大学黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心

摘要：依据河南省2000—2014年能源消费总量、GDP和工业废气排放量的时间序列数据,构建河南省能源-经济-环境的VAR模型,基于此,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对河南省能源、经济和环境三者的动态关系进行研究。研究发现:能源消费、经济增长与环境污染三者间存在相互影响的动态发展关系及长期稳定的协整关系;河南省环境污染对能源消费具有负向影响作用,能源消费对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用,能源消费及经济增长加剧了环境污染;能源消费、经济增长和环境污染短期内的主要贡献因子均为能源消费。最后为促进能源-经济-环境系统的协调发展,从产业结构升级、环境污染防控、大气污染防控及社会经济可持续发展方面给予一些政策措施和建议。

Abstract：Based on the time series data of energy consumption, GDP and discharge of industrial waste gas in 2000—2014, this article established the VAR model of energy-economy-environment in Henan province. Based on this model, we used the methods of generalized impulse response and variance decomposition to conduct an empirical analysis of the dynamic correlations among energy, economy and environment. The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship among energy consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution in Henan Province. The environmental pollution has negative effect on energy consumption, while energy consumption has significant positive promoting effect on economic growth. Energy consumption and economic growth further aggravate the environmental pollution. The main contributing factor to all the three elements is energy consumption. Some policy measures and recommendations are offered to promote the coordinated development among energy, economy and environment.

基金：国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(41501138)；

关键词：能源-经济-环境;VAR模型;脉冲响应函数;方差分解;

DOI：10.16698/j.hpu(social.sciences).1673-9779.2018.01.009

分类号：F127;F426.2;X24