葛利玲，焦轶恒，张旭飞，等. 基于气候变化和人为因素的黄土高原植被覆盖变化特征及归因[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版) , doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024030039.

GE L L，JIAO Y H，ZHANG X F，et al. Characteristics and attribution of vegetation change in the Loess Plateau based on climate change and human factors [J]. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University( Natural Science) , doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024030039.

基于气候变化和人为因素的黄土高原植被覆盖变化特征及归因(网络首发)

葛利玲 ¹，焦轶恒 ²，张旭飞 ²，方士军 ¹

（1.河南省国土空间调查规划院，河南 郑州 450000；2.河南理工大学 测绘与国土信息工程学院，河南 焦作 454000）

摘要: 目的 黄土高原作为中国生态安全的重要组成部分，了解其植被的时空变化及其气候控制因子，可为生态环境的保护与恢复提供重要的理论依据。 方法 利用中国黄土高原2000—2022年逐年的核植被归一化差异指数(kNDVI)表征植被覆盖度，通过植被覆盖度变化的趋势分析、稳定性分析和Hurst指数预测，探讨植被时空变化特征。此外，结合气象资料，利用偏导数分析方法进一步量化气候变化和人为因素对kNDVI年际变化的贡献。 结果 结果表明:(1)近23a来，植被覆盖度以0.0057/a速率增长，受坡度影响，植被覆盖度时空异质性显著; (2) Hurst模型的预测结果表明，虽然矿区内大部分地区(79.04%)的植被生长呈上升趋势，但也有部分地区（3.74%）的植被生长呈下降趋势。(3)降水和温度对黄土高原kNDVI变化的平均贡献分别为0.00081/a和0.00131/a。人为活动对植被活动的影响占主导地位，对kNDVI变化的相对贡献率为62.33%(气候变化贡献率为37.67%);(4)土地利用效率动态表现为林地面积增加和大规模生态造林工程增加，植被盖度增加。相反，城市化对植被覆盖变化产生不利影响。 结论 研究结果提高了我们对黄土高原植被动态对气候和人类活动响应的认识。

关键词: 植被动态；气候变化；人为活动；归因分析；中国黄土高原

中图分类号：P942　　

doi: 10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787. 2024030039

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（U22A20620）

收稿日期：2024-03-13

修回日期：2024-05-10

网络首发日期：2024-09-11

Characteristics and attribution of vegetation change in the Loess Plateau based on climate change and human factors (Online)

GE Liling¹，JIAO Yiheng²，ZHANG Xufei²，FANG Shijun¹

( 1. Henan Provincial Land and Space Survey and Planning Institute, Zhengzhou 450000, Henan, China; 2. School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, Henan, China)

Abstract: Objectives The Loess Plateau is an important part of China's ecological security. understanding the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation and climate control factors can provide a theoretical basis for the protection and restoration of the ecological environment. Methods The annual nuclear vegetation normalized Difference Index (kNDVI) was employed in this study to characterize vegetation coverage in the Loess Plateau of China from 2000 to 2022. Furthermore, the spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation change were examined through trend analysis, stability analysis, and Hurst index prediction of vegetation coverage change. In addition, combined with meteorological data, partial derivative analysis was used to further quantify the contribution of climate change and human factors to kNDVI inter-annual variation. Results showed that: (1) In the past 23 years, the vegetation coverage increased at a rate of 0.0057/a, and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of vegetation coverage was significant due to slope; (2) The prediction results of Hurst model reflected that the vegetation growth in most areas (79.04%) of the mining area showed an upward trend, and some areas (3.74%) showed a downward trend.  (3) The results of attribution showed that the average contributions of precipitation and temperature to kNDVI changes in the Loess Plateau were 0.00081/a and 0.00131/a, respectively. The influence of anthropogenic activities on vegetation activities was the most dominant, and the relative contribution rate to kNDVI change was 62.33% (the contribution rate of climate change was 37.67%). (4) The land use efficiency was dynamically represented by the increase of large-scale ecological afforestation projects, forest area, and vegetation coverage. On the contrary, urbanization had an adverse effect on vegetation growth. Conclusions This study improves our understanding of the dynamic vegetation response to climate and human activities in the Loess Plateau.

Key words：vegetation dynamics；climate change；human activities；attribution analysis；loess Plateau of China

CLC: P942