张小波，王国栋, 马永力,等.极端降雨工况下上游筑坝法尾矿坝稳定性演化规律研究[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,44(6):27-35.

ZHANG X B, WANG G D, MA Y L,et al.Stability evolution of upstream tailings dams under extreme rainfall conditions[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2025,44(6):27-35.

极端降雨工况下上游筑坝法尾矿坝稳定性演化规律研究

张小波1,2, 王国栋1,2, 马永力1,2, 程俊1,2, 尹程1,2, 李海港3,4

1.南昌大学 工程建设学院，江西 南昌  330031；2.水工岩土工程安全江西省重点实验室，江西 南昌  330031；3.江西省应急管理科学研究院，江西 南昌  330000；4.安全生产风险监测预警与防控江西省重点实验室，江西 南昌  330000

摘要: 目的 为了探讨环鄱阳湖区域频发强降雨和长历时降雨条件下尾矿坝稳定性问题，针对不同降雨工况下尾矿坝的渗流场和稳定性演化规律开展研究。  方法 以环鄱阳湖区某上游筑坝法尾矿坝为例，应用有限元软件GeoStudio中的Seep/W和Slope/W模块对坝体进行流固耦合模拟，分别计算在强降雨和长历时降雨工况下尾矿坝抗滑稳定的安全系数和坝体内部渗流场抬升量。  结果 结果表明：极端强降雨工况下，降雨入渗导致坝体稳定性降低，坝体抗滑稳定的安全系数降低速率与降雨强度呈正相关；500，700 mm/d工况下尾矿坝整体迅速达到饱和，对应的安全系数分别在第36，24 h低于标准允许的最小安全系数，坝体判定为失稳；长历时降雨工况下尾矿坝安全系数逐渐降低，在中雨和大雨工况下，坝体经历70 d降雨后未发生失稳。  结论 强降雨工况下，表层尾砂部分区域含水率增大并达到饱和，易诱发坝体浅层滑移失稳破坏；长历时降雨工况下，坝体不同层位尾砂渗透性存在差异导致坝体内部出现局部孔隙水压力增大，局部区域重度增加，可能诱发深层尾砂滑移失稳。为定量描述坝体渗流场抬升特征，采用浸润系数指标表征堆积坝内部渗流场的抬升作用和抬升速率。研究成果可为环鄱阳湖区域上游式尾矿坝复杂降雨工况下的尾矿坝稳定性分析提供参考。

关键词:尾矿坝;极端降雨;渗流;浸润线;稳定性分析

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2025030011

基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2023YFC3012200）

收稿日期:2025/03/05

修回日期:2025/08/18

出版日期:2025/10/14

Stability evolution of upstream tailings dams under extreme rainfall conditions

Zhang Xiaobo1,2, Wang Guodong1,2, Ma Yongli1,2, Cheng Jun1,2, Yin Cheng1,2, Li Haigang3,4

1.School of Infrastructure Engineering， Nanchang University， Nanchang  330031， Jiangxi， China；2.Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Geotechnical Engineering Safety， Nanchang  330031， Jiangxi， China；3.Jiangxi Academy of Emergency Management Science， Nanchang  330000， Jiangxi， China；4.Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Work Safety Risk Monitoring， Early Warning， Prevention and Control， Nanchang  330000， Jiangxi， China

Abstract: Objectives This study investigates the stability of upstream tailings dams in the Poyang Lake region under frequent heavy rainfall and prolonged rainfall conditions， focusing on the evolution of seepage fields and dam stability under different rainfall scenarios.  Methods An upstream tailings dam in the Poyang Lake region was selected as a case study. Fluid-solid coupling simulations were conducted using the Seep/W and Slope/W modules of the finite element software GeoStudio.  Results Under extreme rainfall conditions， rainfall infiltration reduced dam stability， and the rate of decrease in the safety factor was positively correlated with rainfall intensity. At rainfall intensities of 500 mm/d and 700 mm/d， the tailings dam rapidly reached saturation， with safety factors falling below the minimum allowable value at 36 h and 24 h， respectively， indicating instability. Under prolonged rainfall conditions， the safety factor gradually decreased； However， under moderate （25 mm/d） and heavy rainfall （50 mm/d）， the dam remained stable after 70 days of continuous rainfall.  Conclusions Under heavy rainfall conditions， increased water content and saturation of surface tailings in certain areas readily induced shallow sliding instability， the main cause of localized stability reduction. Under prolonged rainfall conditions，  differences in permeability across tailings layers caused localized increases in pore water pressure and unit weight within the dam， potentially triggering deep sliding instability and thereby contributing to overall stability reduction. To quantitatively characterize the rise of the seepage field， an infiltration coefficient was proposed to represent the magnitude and rate of the rise. The  findings provide a reference for stability analysis of upstream tailings dams in the Poyang Lake region under complex rainfall conditions.

Key words: tailings dam; extreme rainfall; seepage; phreatic line; stability analysis