褚志成, 陈鹏辉, 雷胜友,等.多年冻土边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2020,39(5):146-153.

CHU Z C, CHEN P H, LEI S Y, et al.Sensibility analysis of the influence factors on stability of permafrost slope[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science) ,2020,39(5):146-153.

多年冻土边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析

褚志成, 陈鹏辉, 雷胜友, 郭长志, 陈虹宇, 王汉文

长安大学 公路学院，陕西 西安710064

摘要:为确定多年冻土边坡稳定性影响因素的敏感程度，考虑冻融循环对边坡土体的损伤作用和边坡局部冻融的特殊性，在影响边坡稳定性基本因素的基础上，引入季节活动层冻融深度和冻融损伤系数，提出基于有限元的温度场-应力场（热-力）耦合多年冻土边坡稳定性分析方法，从而得到边坡的稳定性系数，并将稳定性系数作为系统特征量，利用正交试验对各影响因素进行交互设计，运用改进的灰色关联分析模型进行关联度分析。结果表明：土体黏聚力对多年冻土边坡稳定敏感程度最大；冻融损伤系数、季节活动层冻融深度、内摩擦角、坡度和密度，说明环境因素对多年冻土边坡的影响不容忽略。在该地区冻土边坡防护治理中，通过有效措施减少极端气候条件的影响，是极为重要的。

关键词:多年冻土边坡;冻融循环;温度场-应力场耦合;灰色关联分析;敏感性分析

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2020.5.21

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（59479017）；地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（GZ2005-03 ）

收稿日期:2019/12/05

修回日期:2020/02/26

出版日期:2020/09/15

Sensibility analysis of the influence factors on stability of permafrost slope

CHU Zhicheng, CHEN Penghui, LEI Shengyou, GUO Changzhi, CHEN Hongyu, WANG Hanwen

School of Highway， Chang，an University，Xi’an 710064 ， Shannxi， China

Abstract:In order to determine the sensitivity of influence factors on stability of permafrost slope， taking into account the damage of soil under freeze-thaw cycles and local freeze-thaw peculiarity of permafrost slope， based on the basic factors affecting slope stability， considering the freeze-thaw depth of seasonal active layer and freeze-thaw damage coefficient， the stability coefficient of permafrost slope was obtained by finite element thermal-mechanical coupling model， and it was used as the system characteristic quantity， then the interactive design for all the factors was carried out by using orthogonal test and adopting the improved grey relational analysis model to analyse the correlation degrees. The results showed that the soil cohesion was the most sensitive to the stability of the permafrost slope， followed by freeze-thaw damage coefficient， freeze-thaw depth of seasonal active layer， internal friction angle， angle of slope and weight of soil. It indicated that the effect of environmental factors were non-negligible， and it was extremely important to reduce the impact of extreme climate conditions on slope through effective measures for treatment of soil slope in permafrost region.

Key words:permafrost slope;freeze-thaw cycle;thermal-mechanical coupling;grey correlation analysis;sensitivity analysis

多年冻土边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析_褚志成.pdf